2008 NFL Strength Of Schedule April 25th, 2008
By: NFL Handicapping Staff
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NFL Football Previews NFL Trends Sportsbook Reviews2008-2009 NFL Strength Of Schedule (SOS)
The 2008 NFL schedule announced this week we are now able to see exactly what the 2008/09 NFL Strength of Schedule will be.
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How do we come up with the NFL SOS? It’s really easy. Just add up all of last year’s wins and all the losses from the opponents on any given team’s schedule, and you’ll get the NFL’s strength of schedule formula. It’s getting closer to the NFL schedule and fall football season beginning, can you feel it?
2008 NFL Strength Of Schedule Team Opponents’ ’07 win pct. Opponents’ ’07 wins Opponents’ ’07 losses Steelers .598 153 103 Colts .594 152 104 Jaguars .559 143 113 Vikings .551 141 115 Ravens .551 141 115 Bengals .547 140 116 Texans .547 140 116 Browns .547 140 116 Lions .543 139 117 Titans .543 139 117 Bears .531 136 120 Packers .531 136 120 Redskins .523 134 122 Cowboys .523 134 122 Eagles .520 133 123 Giants .520 133 123 Rams .488 125 131 49ers .484 124 132 Seahawks .477 122 134 Buccaneers .469 120 136 Cardinals .465 119 137 Dolphins .465 119 137 Panthers .465 119 137 Falcons .461 118 138 Jets .457 117 139 Chiefs .453 116 140 Bills .449 115 141 Saints .449 115 141 Broncos .445 114 142 Raiders .438 112 144 Chargers .422 108 148 Patriots .387 99 157
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The NHL season is here, and we were curious when goals occur throughout the game. In many sports, we expect goal scoring to increase toward the end of the game as players begin to tire or take more risks to win the game. For hockey, one other thing to consider is power play goals. Therefore, it is also useful to look into these ideal goal scoring opportunities, when they occur, and whether their occurrence coincides with increased goal scoring. Note: Our graphics were made using data pulled from http://www.nhl.com/stats/team.Breakdown of NHL Goal Scoring by Period
A historical breakdown of NHL goal scoring by period
Around 30% of goals in regulation are scored in the first period. Goal scoring then increases slightly, so that around 35% are scored in each of the last two periods. The increased goal scoring beginning in the second period is likely attributed to the long-change effect. The long-change effect occurs during the second period because the teams switch ends requiring more effort to make line changes. This creates a situation where tired, less effective players are on the ice but unable to quickly switch out, creating more opportunities to score. During the third period, the increase in goal scoring may also be attributed to more risk taking. Playing with an open net for example, creates a situation similar to a power play but also leaves the goal unattended.Breakdown of NHL Power Plays by Period
A historical breakdown of when power plays occur by period
I was surprised to find that the power play graphic above did not mimic the goal scoring one. As an important part of goal scoring, I would have expected the breakdown to be similar. However, we are looking at opportunities and not actual power play goals scored. We see that during the first and second period, the percentage of power plays is a couple percentage points higher than goals scored, whereas in the final period the power play percentage is lower. One possibility is that earlier in the game, the players are fresh so they can better defend power plays. In the final period, even though there are less power plays, the conversion rates are likely higher due to tired players and players taking more risks to score.Relationship of Period Goal Scoring and Wins
For 2014-15 season, a breakdown of period goal scoring by team (winning percentage in parentheses).
We were also interested in whether a team’s scoring breakdown is related to its overall winning percentage. In the above plot, we have given each team’s goal scoring breakdown for the 2014-15 season. The teams are ordered by descending winning percentage. One thing to notice is that the teams with the highest winning percentage also have a higher 3rd period goal scoring percentage. This makes sense as the teams that can get the job done when the game is on the line are likely winning more often. This is true also for overtime games. Where does your favorite team fall in the above graph?Conclusion
This analysis can be helpful for taking the over/under total goals and knowing what the expectations might be for the period. If you’re interested in reading more about goal scoring, I found a more in depth analysis here: More on goal scoring.
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