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What - s your bet on brexit, Open Europe

What’s your bet on brexit?

Open Europe's Pawel Swidlicki looks back at the event marking the launch of Open Europe's new Brexit Barometer featuring Ladbrokes Politics, YouGov and BuzzFeed UK.

Pawel Swidlicki

27 February 2015

Yesterday saw the launch of our Brexit Barometer, a unique new Open Europe feature which assesses the probability of Britain leaving the EU within the next Parliament. As things stand, we assess the prospects of Brexit at 17%, but we will be making regular adjustments depending on opinion polls, election results and the prospects for achieving EU reform.

What are the chances of the UK leaving the EU during the next Parliament?

The barometer was officially launched at a well attended and at times raucous evening reception organised together with Ladbrokes Politics at which guests were encouraged to make their own predictions on the likelihood of brexit and to place their own #betonbrexit.

The event featured a panel of experts comprised of our own Raoul Ruparel, YouGov’s Laurence Janta-Lipinski and Ladbrokes Politics’ Matthew Shaddick, with BuzzFeed UK’s Jim Waterson moderating.

Ruparel: If anyone offers you odds of 5/1 or more take it!

Raoul kicked off the proceedings by outlining how Open Europe designed our barometer – by factoring in a range of a contingent issues including the outcome of the general election, the probability of the next government offering a referendum, as well as the likelihood of achieving the kind of EU reform that would secure an ‘in’ vote. Raoul concluded that with the probability of brexit currently at 17%, if you can get odds of 5/1 or more its definitely worth a punt!

Woah, they’ve got two stages here. Almost like holograms on CNN, but Raoul Ruparel is actually real. #BetOnBrexit pic.twitter.com/m4VZkPOMn2

Janta-Lipinski: Out campaign on back foot but don’t underestimate British isolationism

Laurence drew attention to the rising public support for staying in – with YouGov’s latest poll showing record high support – and suggested that this could be explained by the fact politicians were increasingly discussing the topic thereby forcing the public to consider it for themselves. Conversely, the return of the Eurozone crisis to the front pages had not made much of an impact. Laurence concluded that while the ‘marmite’ nature of UKIP was actively hurting the better-off-out cause in the polls, in a referendum scenario, the innate isolationist tendency of the British should not be underestimated – in a poll in 2012, 29% of respondents listed “Being an island physically separate from other countries” as one of the five best things about Britain.

LIVE PIC: @OpenEurope #BetOnBrexit event in Westminster – tweetwall in full flow aftr discussion on possible #Brexit pic.twitter.com/4XT1zyded7

Shaddick: Only 40% probability of an EU referendum before 2018

Finally, Matthew Shaddick presented Labdbrokes’ odds, noting that despite the recent speculation about an early referendum in 2016 (if the Tories were to remain in office), Ladbrokes still viewed a 2017 referendum as more likely, hence the odds of 10/1 and 7/4 for a referendum to take place in either year respectively. A 2015 referendum – a possible scenario in the event of a very strong UKIP showing, was rated as a 25/1 long shot. However, Ladbrokes also assigned a 60% probability to the referendum not taking place before 2018. In terms of the outcome of the referendum, the traditional swing to the status quo meant that, according to Ladbrokes, the In campaign would be favourites at 4/6 with the Out campaign on 11/10. Matthew also noted that there was a huge appetite for political betting as demonstrated by the substantial sums wagered on the outcome of the Scottish referendum.

Ladbookes suggest that referendum would be good for business. Time for ‘bookies for a referendum’ #betonbrexit

What is the Tories lose the election and elect a better-off leader?

During the Q&A session, a few guests asked if our model factored in the possibility of the Conservatives losing the next general election and subsequently electing a better off outer as the next party leader. The answer is that as most of the uncertainty currently surrounds the outcome of the general election, for the time being we have not included post-election leadership outcomes and other related factors such as the stability of potential coalitions or minority governments, although this is something we could include at a later stage.

Finally, Ladbrokes also compiled the average #betonbrexit predictions of the audience, which came out at 26% chance of Brexit, slightly higher than that of the experts – we encourage you to post your own estimates in the comments.

I’ve guessed chance of Brits voting for #Brexit by end-2018 is 18% at @OpenEurope event. @nntaleb & his #taleban won’t be amused

Either way, make sure to follow our Brexit Baromoter updates from the outcome general election for a long time through to the potential EU renegotiation and the thrills and spills of the referendum campaign itself!

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